Oregon Baseball Numerical Analysis: Pitching (2024)

I set out in writing this article to find a way to numerically appreciate how Oregon’s pitching staff compared to their competition and in what areas they should most look to improve. I was fortunate to be able to find a source for pitching and hitting data for college baseball going back several decades.

For simplicity in this first article, I have restricted my attention to the Pac-12 conference from 2019-2024, excluding the COVID-19 shortened 2020 season. Later this summer if the opportunity arises I may revisit this data to compare the Ducks to their future BIG competition, as well as teams that made it to the playoffs.

In 2024, three pitchers started most games for Oregon. Their season statistics are shown below.

The first three categories are totals over the course of the season. The remaining statistics are averages over single game. For instance, ERA is computed by taking the total number of earned runs a pitcher gives up, dividing by the number of innings pitched, and then multiplied by 9. The result is meant to represent how many earned runs a pitcher would give up if they pitched an entire game of 9 “typical” innings. The other categories do similar calculations for hits, home runs, walks, and strike outs, respectively.

How well do these starters stack up against starting pitchers in the Pac-12 over the past few seasons? I defined a “starter” as any pitcher who started 8 or more games over a full season. The following table shows the summary statistics for each category.

Comparing the Ducks’ 2024 starters to the above numbers, we can comfortably describe them as ‘average’ for recent Pac-12 pitchers. Pitching performances tend to be skewed, so a ‘typical’ performance is best represented by the median. While the Ducks’ starters tended to give up fewer hits, they generally had more walks and gave up a lot more home runs. The most interesting finding is that the number of starts is inversely proportional to ERA. The obvious question is did Gordan and Seitter start more often against the best hitting teams Oregon went up against? Answering that question will require additional investigation.

To analyze the Ducks’ bull pen, lets look at the remaining pitchers on the roster. I have excluded any pitcher who appeared in fewer than 10 games to avoid outliers. The pitchers used most often in relief and their statistics are shown below.

I compiled the same summary statistics for the relievers as I did for the starters. This included all Pac-12 pitchers in the years 2019 and 2021-2024 who started less than 8 games and appeared in at least 10.

Seeing where the Ducks’ relievers fit in relation to these numbers, it is tempting to think that their bull pen actually compares favorably to their conference opponents because of Mercado, Featherston, and Mullan. The problem is that the depth behind these three were in the bottom half of the data set in most categories.

Compared to recent Pac-12 teams, Oregon had decent starters in 2024 but no ‘ace’ they could count on to keep the score down against elite competition. While they had three good options in relief, anyone else who was available wasn’t going to inspire much confidence. That might be workable if the Ducks could count on getting through most games using only two pitchers, but in the college game that is not a realistic expectation.

To take the next step the Ducks first need to build up their depth. Ideally, the team should be confident that they have at least two reliable relief options available for every game. The greater challenge will be making the program an attractive option to the most elite high school pitching prospects. The Big Ten may not be the most competitive baseball conference, but Oregon has its sights set on Omaha in the future. If they want to get there, the same kinds of performance we saw in 2024 on the mound won’t cut it.